Fivethirtyeight has the best statistical data for the midterms. Let’s clear up a misnomer; 538 was not “wrong” in 2016. The accurately predicted (within the margin of error) the outcome of the States with the exception of PA. they also noted that if Trump usurped power it would most likely happen without the popular vote.
Nate Silver and his group only gave Trump a 28.6% chance of usurping power in 2016–but all of us have won on those odds at one time or another in Vegas–that’s why odds are different than prognostications or predictions.
Now Democrats, according to 538, have an 86% chance to win the house and only a 16.3% chance to win the Senate. We need to make that 86% a reality and we have to win the Senate–with only a 16.3% chance. The only way we win is huge turnout in NV, AZ, IN, MO, TN, TX, FL, MT and not impossible in ND, but certainly improbable .
We also need hefty turnouts in GA, NV, FL for Governor’s races as well.
With voter suppression on the rise especially in GA and ND. With Voting Machine irregularities in TX and we know FL is always a problem (remember the butterfly ballot). Democrats must work for overwhelming victories in all these states.
This should be an overpowering year for Democrats; Trump has a -10 (42.2-52.6 disapprove) job approval rating. In 2010 and 2014 President Obama had a (47% approval and 51% disapproval) and Democrats got trounced. In 2010, Obama had a 45% approval and 48% disapproval Democrats lost the House and the Senate. In 2014 his other mid-term election he was at his lowest approval point with 40% approval and 53% disapproval and Democrats really got trounced (note: those Republican Senate Seats are up in 2020).
That the imposter Trump has over 40% approval at all is a stain on the character of our nation. But that blog is for another time.
The key to winning big is for the overwhelming majority to vote for Democrats so any irregularity will be shown for what it is–an extension of the current illegitimate regime’s fascist attempts to steal power. It is not a question of whether we lose our Republic; we did that in 2016. It is a question of whether we can get it back in 2018 and 2020.
That’s why voting is so important. One last point, if Democrats win it was because Millennials showed up to the polls. And should thank them if they do; for some people who have called them the most selfish generation ever; they will have effectively stemmed the tide of fascism and put us on a path to restoring our Republic.